土木工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本进展研究

A review of study on life-cycle seismic loss estimation in civil engineering

近年来在西太平洋地区发生的一系列重大自然灾害如地震、飓风等给人类社会敲响了警钟,为了应对重大自然灾害的不利影响,世界各国政府都在研究或已经出台了防灾减灾保险法律如地震保险法加以应对,这应该说是防灾减灾研究的一个必然的趋势。而完善的地震保险政策的出台必须建立在工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究的基础上。由于我国目前工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究等基础应用研究的缺乏导致我国巨灾保险政策迟迟难以推出,基于此,总结和回顾了工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究的理论内涵和研究现状,分析了以往工程结构地震易损性研究和全寿命期地震损失成本研究所面临的理论缺陷和应用局限,重点阐述了基于组合的地震易损性研究的理论优势、具体实施步骤和关键技术特点,最后展望了基于此建立我国工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究框架体系的重大意义。

Earthquake,hurricane and tsunami are main natural risks faces by human society.Recently a series of large natural disasters have occurred in West Pacific area,they warned us.To minimize their negative effects on human society,countries all er the world now introduce or have published disasters insurance policies,this is an inevitable tendency and a best way to minimize seismic or hurricane loss.Now people in China are very eager to have insurance laws to protect their properties,but unfortunately the government has not published a practical natural disaster insurance policy due to lack of fandamental study on life cycle seismic cost （LCSC）.Here,the LLSC theory was reviewed and important meaning of LCSC for China society was also presented.Theoretical defects and obstacle in practical application for previous seismic vulnerability research and the LCSC theory were analyzed.An innovative seismic vulnerability study based on assembly was proposed.Its theoretical benefits,technical characters and particular implementation steps including damage analysis and loss assessment in life-cycle were presented in detail.Finally,the significance of establishing the study frame system for life-cycle seismic cost of our country was proposed.