高管过度自信对跨国并购绩效的影响——基于我国上市公司的实证研究

Effects of Senior Executives' Overconfidence on Transnational M&A Performance——An Empirical Research Based on China's Listed Companies

为客观地认识后金融危机时期我国企业的跨国并购行为，为未来的跨国并购决策提供有益参考，选取沪深两市2008~2010年间发生跨国并购的上市公司为研究样本，采用持股变动法判断企业高管是否过度自信，运用因子分析法建立跨国并购绩效评价指标，通过描述性统计分析、简单相关分析和偏相关分析，研究高管过度自信对跨国并购绩效的影响。结果表明：我国上市公司高管过度自信与跨国并购前一年的绩效显著正相关，与并购后一年的绩效显著负相关，且与并购当年及并购后两年的绩效存在负相关关系，但其显著性随研究数据和方法的不同而不同。

To understand objectively the transnational merger and acquisition （M＆A） of Chinese companies during the post-financial crisis period, and provide a useful reference for future transnational M＆A decisions, senior executives＇ overconfidence was examined by applying the shareholding change method and using the data samples from the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen exchange markets that carried out transnational M＆A during 2008 -2010. Then the assessment indexes of transnational M＆A performance were formulated with factor analysis, and the impacts of senior executives＇ overconfidence on transnational M＆A performance were explored with descriptive statistical analysis, simple correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis. The results showed that the senior executives＇ overconfidence in China＇ s listed companies has a positively significant correlationship with the performance of the year before transnational M＆A and a negatively significant correlationship with the performance of the year after. Moreover, it is negatively correlated to the performance of the year and the two years after transnational M＆A, but its significance varies with different research data and methods.