基于复合故障率的电网差异化规划方法研究

Power System Differentiated Planning Method Based on Composite Fault Rate

根据的风险评估思想,引入极值理论对导线覆冰极值概率分布进行研究,分析特定气象条件下的导线覆冰厚度极值概率;结合线路承受应力时的指数故障率函数,建立线路在特定覆冰条件下的综合故障率模型;提出按照所能承受的覆冰厚度来具体描述线路的抗冰加强标准,对线路进行差异化加强,特别针对跨越气象条件不同的区域的线路提出采用分段加强的方法;最后采用改进的基于全寿命周期成本的经济性评估方法,利用复合故障率计算差异化"减损"效益。通过算例对不同线路进行差异化规划,综合比较各项经济性指标,得到线路在不同差异化加强方案下的经济性评估结果,证明了所提方法的有效性。

According to the ideas of risk assessment, the theory of extreme value is introduced to study the ice extreme value probability distribution of the wire, and then extreme value probability of conductor＇s ice coating thickness is analyzed. Combined with the index function of failure rate when the line is under stress, the comprehensive failure rate model of the line is established in the particular icing condition. The ice strengthening standard is described as per the afforded icing thiekness, which is used to strengthen lines differentially. Especially, the lines that cross different meteorological conditions are strengthened by the method of segmentation. Finally, the method of economic assessment based on the total life cycle cost is improved, and the comprehensive failure rate is used to calculate differentiated impairment benefits. Different lines are made differentiated planning through the simulation example. Various economic indicators are comprehensively compared. Economic assessment results nf lines under different strengthening schemes are obtained, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.