影响中长期电力需求的经济社会发展指标体系研究

Indicator System for Economic and Social Development to Impact Long-term Electricity Demand

电力需求与经济社会发展紧密相关,是经济、产业结构、人口、城市发展、科技进步等因素综合作用的结果。从经济发展、社会发展、能源电力、科技发展4个方面出发,分析经济社会发展各因素对电力需求的影响,利用因子分析、变结构协整分析等方法筛选指标,全面、系统地论证了影响电力需求的因素,构建影响中长期电力需求的经济社会发展指标体系。

Electricity demand is closely related to economic and social development, which is the combined results of various factors, such as economy, industry structure, population, urban development, scientific and technological progress, This article analyzes the impact of various factors on the economic and social development to electricity demand from four aspects of economic development, social development, energy, electricity, technology development. Factor analysis, variable structure cointegration analysis are used to screen indicators. The factors affecting the electricity demand is demonstrated comprehensively and systematically, and economic and social development indicator system is constructed which is adapted to the forecasts of electricity demand in the medium and long term, and lay the foundation for forecasting electricity demand.