徽成盆地玉米生育期气候变化影响分析

Analysis of Maize Growth Period Change under Climate Change in Huicheng Basin

对1983—2012年徽成盆地玉米生育与光热水变化的关系进行了分析。结果表明,21世纪以来,气候因素对玉米产量的影响显著提高,其中,玉米播种期和其他生育期提前,播种—出苗、拔节—乳熟期时间缩短,七叶—拔节期时间延长;玉米全生育期降水减少,播种—抽雄期雨量呈明显减少趋势,抽雄—成熟期呈增多趋势,春季第1场好雨(日雨量≥10 mm)时间推迟,春旱几率增加;全生育期气温升高,播种—拔节期气温趋降,拔节—成熟期趋升;积温增加趋势显著,其中,播种—出苗期略减,抽雄—乳熟期减少,出苗—拔节和乳熟—成熟期增加明显,21世纪以来呈增加趋势;光照略增,其中,出苗—抽雄期趋增,抽雄—乳熟期趋降,其他发育期变化小;随时间变化,玉米产量呈增加趋势,21世纪以来增产明显;玉米生育期降水量与产量呈正相关;气温与产量在1991—2000年呈正相关,21世纪以来呈负相关;日照时数和积温与产量在1983—1990年呈正相关,1991—2012年转为负相关。

Based on analysis of maize yield and climate change between 1983-2012 in Huicheng basin, the results showed that the influence of climate factors on the maize yield increased significantly in 21st century. Maize growth periods shifted to an earlier date, periods of sowing-emergence and jointing-milky stage shortened, and aescin-jointing prolonged. Precipitation in the maize whole stages reduced, especially sowing-tasseling stage reduced significandy, precipitation from tasseling to mature period increased. The first good spring rain delayed, and spring drought risk increased. Temperature in the whole stages rised, but sowing to jointing stage dropped. Accumulated temperature increased significantly, tasseling-milky stage decreased, emergence-joinfing and milky-maturity increased obviously. Sunshine increased slightly, the emergence-tasseling stage added, tasseling-ratooning buds dropped. Maize yield increased over the time significantly since 21st century. Maize yield had positive relationship to precipitation and temperature in 1991-2000, and had negative relationship to temperature since 21st century. Maize yield had positive relationship to sunshine and accumulated temperature in 1983-1990, and had negative relationship in 1991-2012.