山西省50a来气温变化趋势特征分析

Change Trends of Temperature Variation over the 50 Years in Shanxi Province

对山西省1961—2010年以来16个地面气象观测站的年气温资料,采用参数线性回归检验(LR)和非参数Mann-Kendall检验(MK)2种方法,研究山西省气温的时空变化特点。结果表明,山西省最近50 a,年平均气温逐步上升,呈暖干化趋势,气温变化倾向率为0.359℃/10 a;春、冬季变暖趋势明显,夏季气温有所降低;≥10℃有效积温平均增长速率为76.63℃/10 a;作物有效生长季表现为逐步延长的趋势,平均延长11.8 d。气温升高对扩大作物熟性范围、提高作物产量有一定的积极意义。

With linear regression test and Mann-Kendall test methods, the general changing patterns of temperature in Shanxi province were assessed from the aspects of all surface meteorological stations, on the basis of temperature series （1961-2010） from all the 16 stations in the province. The results indicated that, in the past 50 years, the annual temperature series exhibited a significant increase trend （0.359 ℃/10 a） over the province; especially, there was a temperature sudden change in 1993. Trend of warming spring and winter showed obviously, also with a temperature decrease in summer. The effective accumulated temperature increased（76.63 ℃/10 a）. The gradual extension trend of crop growth period was clear and the growth period extension was about 11.8 days. Certainly, rising temperature will have positive meaning for expanding the scope of the crop cultivation and increasing crop yield.