基于实时图像及灰色预测的输电线覆冰灾害预警

Early warning of ice-coating of transmission lines based on grey prediction method and real-time graphs

输电线路覆冰会严重危害电力系统的安全运行.为了得到相对可靠的覆冰厚度动态预测,设计了一种输电线路覆冰厚度在线监测系统,利用图像法及灰色预测模型实时监测输电线路的覆冰厚度.该监测系统利用在线监测实时更新数据的优势,基于较少的数据样本,采用灰色预测模型进行下一时刻覆冰厚度的预测,并利用补偿法实时修改当前参数,以应对覆冰增长产生突变的情况.最后,采用Matlab编程绘制了输电线路覆冰厚度的预测曲线,同时,在实验室条件下模拟了输电线路的覆冰过程,利用设计的监测系统预测覆冰厚度,验证了基于实时图像及灰色预测法的输电线路覆冰预警系统的准确性和实用性.

The coating ice of transmission lines will seriously devastate the safety of electric power system. In order to obtain a relatively reliable dynamic prediction of the thickness of ice coating, this paper designs an on-line monitoring system which is based on the method of real-time graphs to monitor the thickness of the line ice coating. Based on limited data, the grey prediction model is applied as a method to make a more precise prediction of thickness of ice coating lines for next moment. Meanwhile, the parameters are also modified by the method of compensation; these methods can be used to cope with the situation that the thickness of ice may increase abruptly. Finally, the coating ice thickness curve is drawn by Matlab. Mean- while, a real laboratory test is operated to demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the system by simu- lating the situation of ice coating lines.