光伏发电系统出力预测的研究

Review of output power forecasting for photovoltaic power system

光伏发电系统输出功率具有不确定性特征,为了减轻其对电网的影响,有必要进行光伏出力预测.全面介绍了光伏发电系统出力预测所需的数据信息、预测软件和所需数据库;总结了光伏出力预测所用到的预测方法,分析了各方法之间的差异,并给出常用预测精度分析指标,为以后预测领域的研究工作提供基础.

The power output of photovoltaic power system tends to be uncertain. In order to lighten the adverse influence for power grid, it is necessary to forecast the power output of a PV power system. This paper introduces the information, forecasting soft, and database needed by photovohaic power forecasting, summarizes the prediction method of PV output, analyzes the differences between each method, and gives the criterion for forecasting accuracy. It provides the basis for the prediction of the future research work in future.