基于SD模型的吐鲁番地区地下水资源承载力理论研究

Theoretical Research on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on SD Model

研究地下水资源承载力准确预测问题,是对区域地下水开发利用状况的一种定量描述。本研究采用定性和定量相结合的方法,基于吐鲁番市水资源现状,采用系统动力学仿真模型研究方法,建立吐鲁番地区地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型。预测2011-2025年吐鲁番地区不同发展策略下各指标数值。仿真结果表明:地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型能够动态仿真和并能够调控地下水资源承载力。研究结果可为吐鲁番地区地下水开发利用规划的制定提供一定的理论指导依据。

Based on the system dynamics model ,simulation and predict problems of groundwater resources in Turpan Area .In this paper ,based on the present situation of water resources ,the system dynamics model in Turpan Area of is established and a series of indexes of different developing tactics for Turpan Area is simulated from 2011 to 2025 .The simulation results show that the system dynamics model can simulate and adjust the groundwater resources carrying capacity .The data before 2011 is used to establish and test the model and parameters ,and the data after 2011 is used for prediction .Though the research ,we analyze the key issues simula‐ting the evolution ,for the future development of the Turpan Area and propose the best scenario simulation model of sustainable de‐velopment .