乌鲁木齐河上游水源涵养地径流模拟研究

Runoff Simulation in the Water Conservation of Upper Urumqi River Basin Based on SWAT Model

SWAT水文模型是研究流域水文循环过程的有效工具,能为解决干旱半干旱地区水资源短缺问题奠定基础。以SWAT模拟为基础,采用SCS法计算地表径流,Penman-Montieth法计算潜在蒸发,模拟出1993-2012年乌鲁木齐河上游水源涵养地径流量。将英雄桥站1993-2002年的逐月实测数据带入SUFI-2模型,并根据径流参数的相对敏感性,不断调整参数的取值范围,以求达到较好的模拟效果;然后带入2000年的逐日数据对参数进行微调,最后得到月相关系数R2为0.9,达到了甲等,2000年的日相关系数R2和NS效率系数值均大于0.8,总体而言,校正期模型的模拟精度高。2003-2012年月实测数据和2012年的日数据作为模型验证,相关系数R2均大于0.7,NS分别为0.78和0.68,模拟结果较为满意。这为干旱半干旱的中小型流域SWAT水文模型的应用提供借鉴,同时为乌鲁木齐流域未来的土地利用变化研究奠定了基础。

SWAT hydrological model is an effective tool for studying the hydrological cycle ,for solving the water shortage in arid and semi-arid regions＆#39;foundation problems .Based on the SWAT model ,SCS method is used to calculate the surface runoff and Penman-Montieth method to calculate the potential evaporation ,to simulation the water conservation of Upper Urumqi Rive Basin 1993 -2012 annual runoff variation ,The 1993-2002 measured monthly data of the Hero Bridge Station was brought into the SUFI-2 mod‐els ,and according to the relative sensitivity of the flow parameters ,and constantly adjust the parameter value range ,in order to a‐chieve a good simulation effect .And then the daily data of 2000 were brought to fine-tune parameters .Finally ,the correlation coeffi‐cient of 0 .9 was obtained NS efficiency coefficient values were greater than 0 .8 .In general ,simulation precision of phase correction model was high .,then the observation data from 2003 to 2012 and daily data for 2012 were used for model validation .There correla‐tion coefficients were more than 0 .7 ,NS were 0 .78 and 0 .68 respectively .The results show that runoff analog value reaches the fit‐ting precision ,so the simulation results are more satisfying .With this study ,a SWAT hydrological model in small watershed in aird and semi-arid regions has provided a reference and a modeling framework has been established to the future landuse change in Urumqi River Basin .