石油价格冲击与中国实际经济波动研究——基于开放RBC模型的分析

Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis

中国的石油对外贸易依存度较高,国际油价波动这种外部冲击对经济可能产生各种影响。本文构建了开放经济条件下的RBC(真实经济周期)模型,通过引入石油价格冲击和技术冲击,解释了中国实际经济波动的特征事实,并探讨了石油价格冲击对于中国实际经济波动的作用机制。相较于已有研究,该模型更好地模拟了中国主要宏观经济变量的波动特征。同时,研究发现,除贸易余额冲击外,石油价格冲击对经济也产生负向影响。因此,能源价格改革应遵循循序渐进的原则,防范石油价格波动对实际经济产生较大冲击。

As the China＇s high trade degree of dependence on foreign oil, the external shocks of internation-al oil price fluctuations may have various effects on the China＇s economy. Here an open economy model is built under the conditions of the real business cycle, by introducing the oil price shocks and technology shocks, the characteristics of China＇s actual facts of economic fluctuations are explained and the impact of oil price fluctuationsis explored for the Chinese real economy mechanism. Compared to the existing re- search, this model simulate the Chinese characteristics of the main macroeconomic variables fluctuate bet- ter than other models. Meanwhile, the study found that, in addition to the impact of the trade balance, the oil price shocks on the economy also produced a negative impact. Therefore, the energy price reform should follow the principle of gradual and orderly progress, it＇s to prevent oil price fluctuations have a greater impact on the real economy.