应用蒙特卡洛模拟法观察比阿培南在不同给药方案下的目标获取概率

Estimating the probabilities of target attainment of different biapenem regimens using Monte Carlo simulation

目的:研究比阿培南不同给药方案对不同最低抑菌浓度(MIC)微生物的目标获取概率(PTA)。方法:采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,使用中国人群药动学参数,引入给药剂量、给药间隔和输注时间进行模拟。结果:对于MIC≥0.5mg/L的致病菌,任何方案的比阿培南都难以达到治疗效果。MIC为0.25mg/L时,仅300mg,q6h,输注2h或3h可以达到较高的目标获取概率(PTA>90%)。MIC≤0.13mg/L时,不同给药方案的PTA与日剂量、给药间隔及输注时间相关。结论:比阿培南常规给药方案可能仅在治疗MIC较低的致病菌时有效。

Objective.. To study the probabilities of target attainment（PTA） at different minimum inhibitory concentration （MIC） using different biapenem regimens. Methods：Pharmacodynamic parameters from the Chinese population and different biapenem regimens （dosage, dosing interval, infusion time） were used in Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the PTA. Results： When MIC was ≥0.5 mg/L, all the regimens seemed ineffective. When MIC was 0.25 mg/L, only 300 mg,q6 h, and the infusion time was 2 h or 3 h could obtain high PTA. When MIC was d0.13 mg/L, different regimens had different PTAs. It could be affected by the dosage of every day, dosing interval and the infusion time. Conelusion： Biapenem may be effective only in bacterials with low MICs.