民族地区寿险消费的特征及其趋势分析

Analysis of the Characteristics and Trend of Life Insurance Consumption in Ethnic Regions

区域保险是保险业的发展基础。区域保险的非均衡发展既不利于微观保险经营风险的分散,也不利于整个保险业国际竞争力的提升,更不利于区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文通过2002-2011年我国民族地区与东中部地区寿险消费的省际面板数据的F检验和Hausman检验,构建固定效应变截距模型,分析发现:(1)东部、中部和民族地区寿险消费都与人均可支配收入呈正相关;(2)东部与利率呈负相关,中部和民族地区则呈正相关;(3)东部与通货膨胀呈正相关,中部和民族地区则呈负相关;(4)东部与总抚养比呈正相关,中部和民族地区则呈负相关;(5)东部与教育呈负相关,中部和民族地区则呈正相关。本文认为在当前国家收入倍增计划与利率市场化背景下,保险消费将会逐渐被纳入人们的生活消费与企业的生产消费决策中,国家西部大开发战略下的民族地区和中西部地区经济与金融将得到快速发展,居民与企业的保险消费能力会迅速增强,将改善我国区域保险非均衡发展状况,提升我国转型期区域经济社会的协调发展能力。

Regional insurance is the base of insurance industry development. Unbalanced development of regional insurance is unfavorable for the dispersion of operating risks of micro insurance, the promotion of international competitiveness of the whole insurance industry, and the sustainable development of regional economy. By means of Panel Co-integration Test, the Difference of Life Insurance Consumption between ethnic regions and other areas of China is worked out in this article with the sample data from 2002 to 2011, and the forming mechanism and its trend of difference in life insurance consumption are revealed. The analysis shows that 1） life insurance consumption in Eastern, central and ethnic region is positively correlated with the disposable income per capita; 2） it is negatively correlated with interest rate in Eastern region, but positively correlated with it in central and ethnic regions; 3） it is positively correlated with inflation in the Eastern region, but negatively correlated with it in central and ethnic regions; 4） it is positively correlated with total dependency ratio in the Eastern region but , negatively correlated with it in central and ethnic regions; and 5） it is negatively correlated with education in the Eastern region, but positively correlated with it in central and ethnic regions. This paper argues that in the background of the current national income double plan and interest rate liberalization, insurance consumption will gradually be incorporated into the life of people and the decision-making of enterprise production. Under the guidance of the national Western development strategy, economy and finance in ethnic regions and Midwest region will develop rapidly, and insurance consumption ability of residents and enterprises will be enhanced. As a result, unbalanced development of regional insurance will be improved and the coordinated development of regional economy in our country will be promoted.