基于组合灰色神经网络模型的火炮身管烧蚀磨损量预测

Gun Barrel Erosion and Wear Value Prediction Based on Combined Grey Neural Network Model

针对火炮身管烧蚀磨损量受多种因素影响,变化趋势复杂,难以通过建立准确的数学模型进行预测的问题,在采用灰色动态模型对身管烧蚀磨损量进行预测的基础上,构造了组合灰色神经网络预测模型进行预测。结果表明,通过组合灰色神经网络模型可以得出较单一模型预测更加准确的预测值,能更好地反映内膛烧蚀磨损量的发展规律。

In view of the gun barrel erosion and wear value being subjected to many factors with a complex changing trend,it is difficult to predict the value of the gun barrel erosion and wear through the establishment of accurate mathematical models.The combined prediction model of grey system and neural network was constructed to predict the value of the gun barrel erosion and wear on the basis of the grey dynamic model.The results show that the combined grey neural network model,in comparison with the single model,can be used to derive a more accurate prediction value,which better reflects the development of the amount of the barrel erosion and wear.