交通运输-人口-经济系统协调发展定量研究

Quantitative Analysis on Coordinated Development of Transportation-population-economy System

通过构建交通运输-人口-经济系统协调发展评价的指标体系,选取全国31个省市自治区2003年和2013年的截面数据,采用有序度、协调度模型测算等方法,定量分析单个系统有序度以及系统间协调度。结果表明:交通运输、经济系统的发展水平相对高于人口系统;有序度最高的为经济系统,再次为交通运输系统,而有序度最低的则为人口系统;系统间的协调度在不同的区域有着显著差异,交通运输与人口系统的协调度明显高于人口与经济系统的协调度。因此,要消除不协调因素,促进三方的良性循环与协调发展就可以从交通运输与人口、经济与人口及交通运输-人口-经济系统三个维度出发,研究协调演化规律。

In this paper, through establishing the coordinated development evaluation index system of transportation-population-economy and selecting cross-sectional data of 31 provinces in 2003 and 2013, we conducted a quantitative analysis on the order degree in a single system and the coordinating degree in systems by adopting methods of order degree and coordination degree model. The findings showed the development level of the transportation system and the economic system was relatively higher than that of the population system. The economic system＇s order degree was the highest, followed by transportation system, and then the population system. The coordinating degree among three systems was significantly different in different regions, and the coordinating degree of population-economy system was significantly lower than that of the transporta- tion-population system. Hence we should study the coordination evolution from three aspects including transportation and economy, transportation and population and transportation-population-economy system to eliminate inharmonious factors and promote coordinating development.