2015年我国农药市场和大宗产品行情走势及预测分析

China's Pesticide Market and the Trend of the Bulk of the Product Market Trend and Forecast Analysis in 2015

2015年我国农药行业调整预计贯穿全年。从供应看,今年上半年全国累计生产农药180.7万t,增幅由去年同期0.7%上升到3.2%,供应过剩态势依然严峻;今年农药出口受阻,上半年我国农药原药出口交货值169.19亿元,同比下降14%,随着国外采购传统旺季的到来,预计今年后半程农药出口有所改善;从价格上看,国际市场需求不足,导致行业整体上呈现低速下行的态势,从2014年3季度以来,中国农药产品出口呈现量价齐跌的态势,大宗农药产品出现跌多涨少态势。目前,6—7月我国整体农药市场进入淡季,原药工厂进入盘整阶段,行情变化不大,预计下半年价量会有所好转,不过出现V型反转的概率不大。

In 2015 China＇s pesticide industry adjustment is expected throughout the year, from the supply, in the first half of this year the national production of pesticide, 1.807 million t, increases from 0.7 to 3.2% over the same period of last year, the excess supply situation is still grim. Pesticide exports this year, the first half of the pesticide technical export value of 16.919 billion yuan, fell 14% year on year, with the arrival of foreign procurement traditional peak season, second half of this year is expected to improve pesticide export. From the price point of view, the international market demand leads to low speed downward trend presents on the industry as a whole, since the 3rd quarter of 2014, China pesticide products exports indicated a falling trend, quantity and price in pesticide products appear less down than up, at present, June - July, the off-season of overall pesticide market in China, technical factory has entered into the phase of consolidation, prices haven＇t changed much, the price is expected to show an upword turn in the second half of year, but a little probability of V-shaped reversal.