经济增长、政府规制与烟粉尘排放——基于空间面板数据EBA模型的实证研究

Economic Growth,Government Regulation and Smoke and Dust Emissions——Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Panel Data of EBA Model

根据环境经济学理论，本文采用2004～2013年中国30个省际面板数据，构建空间动态面板数据的EBA模型，实证检验烟粉尘排放与经济增长之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系。进而从经济增长及政府规制两个维度探寻烟粉尘排放的“稳健性”影响因素。研究发现，我国各省烟粉尘排放具有空间溢出效应；烟粉尘排放与经济增长之间不满足EKC曲线倒“u”型关系；重工业发展、能源消费结构、能源效率、地方财政支出与烟粉尘排放呈正向“稳健性”关系；产业结构升级、人口规模对烟粉尘排放呈负向“稳健性”关系。据此提出相应对策建议。

According to file theory of environmental economics, this article adopts 30 provincial panel data in China from 2003 to 2012. We also builds EBA model of spatial factors with GIS Technology to conduct empirical study to verify whether the smoke and dust e- missions and economic growth in China adapt to Environmental Kuznets Curve. Based on this, the article studies the effect factors of the smoke and dust emissions ＂robust＂ on three dimensions, from economic development, population scale and government regulation. Re- search shows that there is no inverted ＂U＂ in EKC curve between the relationship of smoke and dust emissions in China. However, the smoke and dust emissions in Chinese provinces have prominent spatial spillover effects. The development of heavy industry, energy con- snmption structure, energy efficiency and local fiscal expenditure have a positive interference ＂robust＂ effect on the smoke and dust emis- sions, while the upgrading of industrial structure and population scale have a negative interference. According to the empirical study, rela- tive political solutions have been addressed in this article.