基于计量模型经济增长与财政收支关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Financial Revenue and Expenditure Based on the Econometric Model

财政收支与经济增长的关系一直存在争议。本文通过误差修正模型、格兰杰检验和脉冲响应函数进行实证分析,分析发现:财政收支与经济增长在长期均衡方面相关性不显著,但是在短期均衡上存在相互关系。财政收入能够促进经济的增长,经济的增长能够促进财政支出的增长,但是这种积极作用是逐渐形成,并不能迅速发生效果。为了保证财政收支效果,促进经济发展,本文提出了相关政策建议。

The relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure and economic growth has been controversial. In this article, the author carried on the empirical analysis based on the error correction model, granger test and impulse response function, and the research found that., the financial revenue and expenditure and economic growth is not significant in terms of long - term equilibrium correlation, but in the short term equilibrium relationship exists. Fiscal revenue can promote economic growth, economic growth can promote the growth of fiscal expenditure, but the positive effect is gradually formed, does not happen quickly. In order to guarantee the effect of fiscal revenue and expenditure, promote economic development, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.