投入产出法测算CO_2排放量及其影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influence Factors of Computing CO_2 Emission by Input-output Method

近年来,能源和环境问题受到广泛关注,二氧化碳排放量作为重要指标,不仅决定了人们对于碳排状况的认识,更会对我国的产业结构调整、减排计划的执行以及国际碳排责任的判定产生影响。然而,目前对于测算方法和其影响因素却鲜有系统的整理和分析。本文梳理了当前主要的二氧化碳排放量计算方法,并基于投入产出法,对比计算了不同考虑因素对于二氧化碳排放量计算的影响,得到各种条件变动情况下所导致的测算偏差,并对此进行了分析。研究发现,是否考虑能源转化、资本形成总额及出口调出的能源投入,是否考虑水泥的过程排放,都将会引起二氧化碳排放量测算的偏差。具体来讲,若不剔除能源的转化部分,会使中间使用排放量被高估0.3%,最终使用排放量被低估11.7%;若不减去资本形成总额及出口调出的能源投入,会使中间使用排放量被低估3.0%,最终使用排放量被高估103.5%;若不考虑水泥的过程排放,会使中间使用排放量被低估10.1%,总排放量被低估9.8%。最后,本文对碳排计算的方法和准确性问题提出了建议。

In recent years, the energy and environmental problems have been drawing more and more attention, CO2 emission is an important index for many energy and environmental problem, which determines people＇ s understanding of the carbon emission situation as well as the low-carbon industrial adjusting and the identification of the international responsibility for carbon emission. The CO2 emission has been calculated by many scholars with different methods, but seldom researches focus on the comparing and analysis of different methods and the influence factors. In this situation, this paper measures China＇ s CO2 emission in 2007 by input-output method and the impact of different influence factors. The result indicates that many factor could cause bias in result, including the subtracting of transformational energy, energy invest in gross capital formation and export, CO2 from cement manufacture, and measuring with regional IO table. Without subtracting transformational energy, CO2 from intermediate demand will be 0. 3%overvalued, CO2 from final demand will be 11. 7% undervalued. Without subtracting energy invest in gross capital formation and export, CO2 from intermediate demand will be 3. 0% undervalued, and from final demand it will be 103. 5% overvalued. Without subtracting CO2 from cement manufacture, CO2 from intermediate demand will be 10. 1% undervalued, while total CO2 will be 9. 8%undervalued. At last, recommendations are given on the calculation method and veracity.