退耕还林政策的有效性与有效政策搭配的存在性

Grain for Green Program: Policy Effectiveness and the Existence of Effective Policy Mix

论文旨在提高重启的退耕还林项目生态、经济双目标实现的有效性,具体内容如下:1理论研究。利用丁伯根和丁伯根-博弈纳什均衡理论,分别从中央政府政策制定和县级政府政策执行视角,讨论现有退耕还林政策多目标实现的有效性和退耕还林政策实施过程中与其他相关政策有效搭配的存在性。2实证检验。论文首先利用贵州省既属(国家)退耕还林项目实施区又属第二次石漠化调查区的64个县(市、区)作为样本检验退耕还林政策的有效性,用"石漠化改善率"作为项目生态目标的检验结果表明项目的生态目标实现是有效的,而用"县域2005年参与退耕还林项目的农户在2011年的人均纯收入"作为项目的经济目标进行检验的有效性未通过检验。接着,论文利用贵州省晴隆县多政策配套实施退耕还草项目的结果来检验有效政策搭配的存在性,用"植被盖度"、"土壤冲刷量"和"径流量"三个指标来反映项目的生态效果并利用观测点数据进行分析,结果表明退耕还草项目具有较显著的生态效果。用晴隆县实施退耕还草项目乡镇的农户"家庭总收入"指标反映项目经济目标,并利用农户调查数据进行实证检验,结果表明项目的经济目标实现是有效的。3研究结论。从政策设计角度看,退耕还林项目无法通过自身有效地同时实现生态、经济目标;从县级政府政策实施的角度看,若县级政府在退耕还林项目实施中能整合性地配套相关政策,则项目存在"有效政策搭配",即项目可同时有效实现生态、经济双目标。因此,在县级政府绩效考核中增加生态考核指标,进而在县级层面通过政策搭配谋求退耕还林多目标的有效实现,在生态文明建设背景下显得现实与可行。

This paper aims to improve the policy effectiveness of grain-for-green launched again in 2014. The contents are is showed as followings：① Theoretical research. Tingbergen theory was used to analyze the effectiveness of grain-for-green program from the perspective of policy making in central government level, and Tinbergen-Nash model was used to examine the existence of effective policy mix during the process of grain-for-green policy implementing in the county level. ② Empirical study. First, the 64 counties, where both the national grain-for-green program and the second national Karst rocky desertification survey program （ KRDS ） were implemented, were used as samples to analyze the effectiveness of grain-for-green. Two indicators were chosen to assess the program＇ s ecologic and economic goals respectively. One was the decertified land improvement, which was defined as the ratio of improved desertification land area to the total KRDS surveyed land area, the other was the average per capita income in 2011 from the county households who participated in the program in 2005. From the modeling results of Tingbergen theory, the ecologic goal attainment was notable, but economic goal was not achieved. The local grain-for-green program, which was implemented with multiple goal-related policies and launched by Qinglong County government at the beginning and then by Guizhou government, was used to testify the existence of effective policy mix. Vegetation coverage, soil deposition and stream runoff were chosen to analyze the ecologic outcome, and annul income of the households from program implemented area was used to testify the economic performance. The case study, base on Tinbergen-Nash model, showed that both the ecologic and economic goals attainment are effective, which indicated the existence of effective policy mix during the process of grain-for-grain program implement. ③ Results. First of all, in the perspective from institution design, the grain-for-green policy was ineffective, because the number of policy tool was less than that of goal, which mean that the achievement for both ecological goal and economical goal in the program was not feasible. Secondly, in the perspective of policy implemented at the county level, if the county government had issued regulations referring to help goal-related public policies to be implicated integrally and complementarily, then all these policies including grain-for-green would have been able to compose to a new policy system and the effective policy mix of grain-for-green should have existed, i. e. the pursuit of both goals could have been feasible. Over all, the both economic and ecologic goals of grain-for-green could only be achieved at the same time, if and only if the government at the county level could mix all related policies effectively and complementarily.