农民工“候鸟式”迁移影响因素分析——基于重庆市9个主城区的农民工调查

Influencing Factors of Migrant Workers' Life-style like “Migratory Birds”:Based on the Migrant Workers Investigation in Nine Main Urban Zones in Chongqing

新型城镇化具有创造潜在内需的持续动力,其核心是以人为本,关键点为农民工市民化。本研究以重庆市9个主城区868个农民工的调研数据为样本,在分析当前农民工结构、素质及未来发展预期的基础上,从转户意愿、放弃宅基地意愿、在务工地定居意愿3个维度对农民工"候鸟式"迁移及其影响因素进行了实证分析,并研究了新老农民工的代际差异。结果表明,农民工年龄、性别、文化程度、承包地的种植方式、城乡差距、城市打工过程中的居住条件、工作压力等7个因素对其在城乡之间循环流动有重要影响。而宅基地作为农民工最后退路的保障,或因对宅基地的未来收益看涨,大多农民工不愿意放弃宅基地。

The new urbanization, which is people-oriented, enjoys a sustained dynamic to stimulate potential domestic demand. And migrant workers＇ citizenization is the key to promote the development of urbanization. This paper takes survey data as sample, which is about 868 migrant workers ＇ lifestyle in nine main urban zones in Chongqing. Then, based on the analysis of migrant workers ＇ structure, their quality and the future development expect, this paper makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of migrant workers＇ lifestyle which is like ＂migratory birds＂ from three dimensions as follows： whether migrant workers wish to transfer the household registration;whether they want to give up the rural homestead; whether they want to settle in the region where they are working. At last, the research result shows that there are many elements to significantly influence migrant workers＇ circular flow between urban and the rural areas, such as the age of migrant workers, gender, educational level, planting mode of contracted land, urban-rural gap, the living condition in the city where they work and the working pressure. However, given that migrant workers＇ rural homestead is their last guarantee if they go back to rural area to live and the homestead future earnings are expected to rise, the majority of migrant workers don＇ t want to give up their homestead in rural area.