贫困乡城转移、城市化模式选择对异质性减贫效应的影响

Rural-urban Poverty Migration,Urbanization Mode and Heterogeneous Poverty Reduction Effect

在贫困乡城转移的背景下,构建理论模型将城市化的减贫效应分解为集聚效应、收入效应和转移效应,对城市化减贫效应的三种机制进行了分解,然后基于1998-2012年中国省际面板数据,利用空间计量方法依次实证检验了城市化整体对城乡减贫的影响、核心城市和二级城镇减贫效应的异质表现,以及不同城市化模式对城市贫困和农村贫困的不同影响,并利用不同贫困测度指标,分东、西部样本进行了稳健性检验。研究表明,我国各省区的总体贫困和城乡贫困存在显著的空间相关特征,且随着贫困的乡城流动,空间相关性趋于增强。城市化对贫困减缓具有显著积极影响,但不同城市化模式对城乡减贫的影响存在异质效应。城市化影响农村贫困的主要机制是通过集聚外部性所带来的生产效率提高实现减贫,因此核心城市对农村地区和西部地区的减贫效果更为显著。而二级城镇对东部地区,尤其是对东部城市地区充当了贫困人口的"就业避风港",二级城镇的减贫影响更大。因此,在推进《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)》时,应充分考虑城市化对不同收入群体的异质影响,以及不同城市化模式对城乡贫困的差别作用。为了更好地利用城市化的契机实现贫困减缓,需要强调二级城镇对东部地区和城市贫困人群的减贫作用,约束城市化要素集聚给贫困人口带来的公共服务成本提升等负外部性。同时应在西部地区强调核心城市的减贫效果,着力通过放大要素集聚和生产效率提升对贫困人口收入提升的核心作用。并且,由于贫困存在显著空间相关性,未来减贫政策的制定和实施应在城乡一体化框架下展开。

Considering the rural-urban migration of poverty, this paper derives a theory model to explain the poverty reduction effect of urbanization which can be decomposed into agglomeration effect, income effect and spatial effect. We provide an empirical analysis of the role of urbanization in poverty reduction using a spatial econometrics approach based on provincial level spatial panel data covering the period of 1998-2012. We also examine the heterogeneous role of cities and secondary towns in reducing urban poverty and rural poverty. We propose a robust test using income as the proxy variable of poverty and examine the relationship of urbanization and poverty in Western China and Eastern China. We find that urban poverty and rural poverty variables are spatial relevant among different provinces and the spatial relationship are stronger in the context of rural-urban poverty migration. Urbanization has a statistically significantly positive effect on poverty reduction. However, cities and secondary towns have heterogeneous poverty reduction effect. The main mechanism of how urbanization influences poverty reduction is that urbanization induces factor agglomeration which can improve production efficiency. So, cities have more significantly poverty reduction effects in rural areas and Western China than secondary towns. But the conclusion is just opposite in urban areas and Eastern China in which secondary towns are the main resources of poverty reduction, because secondary towns can protect urban poor people from labor market competition as safe haven. Our results suggest that we should realize the inequality effect of urbanization on different income group and the heterogeneous poverty reduction effect of cities and secondary towns when we implement ＂National Plan on New Urbanization （2014-2020）＂. To better use urbanization on poverty reduction, we need to emphasize the role of secondary towns on urban poverty reduction in Eastern China, and constrain the negative externalities such as more expensive public services which are led by factor agglomeration. Meanwhile, we need to emphasize the agglomeration effect in Western China which can improve the production efficiency when we fight against rural poverty. Noreover,the spatial correlation of poverty is statistically significant,the poverty reduction policy should be established in the urban-rural connection framework.