中国城市群“四化”协调发展效率测度

Measurement of the Efficiency of Coordinated Development of the Four Modernizations for Urban Agglomerations in China

中国城市群是伴随国家新型工业化、城镇化、信息化和农业现代化(新"四化")发展到较高阶段的必然产物,城市群"四化"协调、同步发展应是未来中国推进新型城镇化的主体和"新常态"。但目前关于城市群"四化"协调的研究还很薄弱,亟需加强。"四化"协调发展不仅是现阶段的现实需求,也是推进城乡统筹发展、区域发展的重要战略方向,提供了识别区域问题和问题区域的新视角。以中国23个城市群为研究对象,构建了指标体系,运用数据包络分析(DEA)法和探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)技术,对2011年各城市群的"四化"协调发展及其效率的空间差异变化特征进行了分析。结果显示,中国城市群2011年"四化"协调发展综合指数、耦合度和协调度均存在显著的空间分异,各城市群在城镇化和信息化发展上相对于工农业发展水平更为滞后,城市群间的发展差异较大。城市群"四化"协调发展的整体水平不高,只有长三角和珠三角城市群属于"四化"高耦合且高协调的同步发展型城市群。兰西和黔中城市群内部"四化"协调发展最不平衡,呼包鄂、晋中、长三角等城市群内部各城市"四化"协调较为均衡。中国的城市群总体效率相对较低,23个城市群2011年"四化"协调发展综合效率的平均值仅为0.815,达到最优效率的81.5%,处于效率中等水平,达到DEA效率最优的只有海峡西岸、中原、天山北坡和兰西4个城市群。纯技术效率和规模效率的平均值分别为0.923和0.884,多数城市群仍处于规模收益递增阶段。东部城市群主要通过技术进步来提高"四化"协调发展效率,而西部城市群仍以粗放型的规模增长为主。旨在为评估我国城市群"四化"协调发展的效果提供定量的测算依据,进而为提高中国城市群的投入产出效率与空间集聚效率奠定科学的决策基础。

Urban agglomerations （ UAs ） have been the inevitable result of China ＇ s new types of industrialization, urbanization, information and agricultural modernization （ so called ＂Sihua Tongbu＂ in Chinese, and hereinafter referred to as ＂new four modernizations＂） . UAs ought to be the main spatial component and ＂new normal＂ of pushing forward the new types of urbanization. However, research on ＂four modernizations＂ of UAs remains weak and needs to be strengthened. The efficient and coordinated development is not only a practical need but also an important strategic direction of integrating urban-rural development and regional development in recent China, and it also provides a significant perspective for identifying problems so as to improve the regional policies using scientific methods. This paper evaluated the comprehensive development index, coupling development index and coordinated development index of ＂four modernizations＂ of China＇s 23 UAs in 2011. Then, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of the coordination development efficiency of new ＂four modernizations＂. Based on the data from 23 UAs, the efficiencies of ＂four modernizations＂ are investigated using DEA （ Data Envelopment Analysis ） model. Spatial pattern of coordination development efficiency of new ＂four modernizations＂ of China ＇ s UAs is explored by using exploratory spatial data analysis （ ESDA ） . Results indicate that the comprehensive development index, coupling development index, coordinated development index and efficiency of＂four modernizations＂ of China ＇ s 23 UAs have obvious spatial differences and show diverse regional patterns. Overall, the ＂four modernizations＂ coordinated development is relatively low. The urbanization and information lag behind the industrialization and agricultural modernization of China＇s UAs. Only Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta belong to the simultaneous development UAs in ＂four modernizations＂ with high coupling development index and high coordinated development index. Internal ＂four modernizations＂ coordinated development of the Lanzhou-Xining and Central Guizhou Urban Agglomeration is unbalanced, while UAs such as the Hohhot-Baotou-Erdos, the Yangtze River Delta and the Central Shanxi is more balanced. Overall, UAs in China appeared to be relatively poor efficiency performers. Specifically, the average comprehensive efficiency of UAs reached merely 81. 5% of the optimal efficiency level, just at a general level. It is also found that there are four UAs, the West Coast of Taiwan Strait, the Central Plains, the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains and the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration reached the optimal efficiency level. Similarly, the average pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of UAs in 2011 was 0. 923 and 0. 884 respectively. Most of UAs are still in the stage of increasing returns to scale. The eastern UAs improve the ＂four modernizations＂ coordinated development efficiency mainly through technological advance, however, the western UAs is still extensive mode of scale growth-oriented. This study aims to provide a quantitative basis for assessing the effect of ＂four modernizations＂ coordinated development for UAs in China, and further lays a solid foundation for decision-making of improving input and output and spatial agglomeration efficiency of UAs in China.