最终需求拉动下区域产业用水驱动因素分解

Industrial Water Use Driving Factors Decomposition Analysis Driven by Final Demand

要实现最严格水资源管理制度中用水总量控制的目标,需要正确判断相关因素对用水量变化的影响强度和作用机理。影响产业用水量变化的因素涉及从生产层面到消费层面,从结构因素到效率因素。本文从最终需求的视角,同时考虑生产和消费的影响因素,运用投入产出结构分解法,考察了1997-2010年五个时段相关因素的变化对产业用水变化的总贡献和部门贡献。研究结果表明,国内最终需求成长效应和出口成长效应是拉动江苏省产业用水增加的主要原因,产业技术效应和用水强度效应是江苏省产业用水减少的主要因素;第一产业中国内最终需求成长效应是关键拉动效应,国内最终需求结构效应是抑制效应;第二产业中出口成长效应是关键的拉动效应,用水强度效应是关键抑制效应;第三产业中国内最终需求成长效应是关键拉动效应,用水强度效应是关键抑制效应;六大分解因素对各个部门呈现不同的驱动强度。研究结果为不同产业制定相应水管理政策提供决策参考。

To achieve the goal of total water amount control of the most strict water resources management system, to correctly judge the related factors＇ impact strength and mechanism on the change in water consumption is needed. The influence factors of water consumption change include the structural and efficiency factors from production level to consume level. From the final demand perspective, considering the effect factors of production and consumption, the paper studies the total contribution and department contribution in industrial water use change driven by related factors＇ change within five periods, including 1997 to 2000, 2000 to 2002, 2002 to 2005, 2005 to 2007 and 2007 to 2010. The results show that domestic final demand growth effect and export growth effect are the main reasons for the increase of Jiangsu Province industrial water use increase; industrial technology effect and water intensity effect are the main reasons to reduce driving Jiangsu province industrial water use. In the primary industry, domestic final demand growth effect is the key pulling effect, and domestic final demand structural effect is the key inhibitory effect;in the secondary industry, export growth effect is the key pulling effect, and water intensity effect is the key inhibitory effect; in the tertiary industry, domestic final demand growth effect is the key pulling effect, and water intensity effect is the key inhibitory effect. Among six decomposition factors, each department has different driving intensity characteristics. The results provide decision-making reference for different industries to formulate the corresponding water management policies.