中国财政支农支出对农民收入的动态影响

Dynamic effect of national fiscal expenditure in agriculture on farmer's income

运用计量经济学中的协整理论,建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,分析1981—2013年国家财政支农支出对农民收入的影响。结果表明,两者之间存在长期的稳定关系,财政支农支出对农民收入增加有显著的正向影响;脉冲响应分析和方差分析表明,财政支农支出对农民收入增长影响有1 a的滞后期,之后贡献度逐渐增大。政府应继续加大对农财政支出、完善资金支出结构,加强农村金融系统建设,提高支农资金配置效率,增加农民收入。

Abstract： This paper used the eviews software to build the corresponding VAR model to analyze the effect of national agricaltural fiscal expenditure agriculture stable on farmer＇s income from 1981to 2013. The results showed there was long-term stable relationship between fiscal expenditure in agriculture and farmer＇s income growth; Impulse analysis and variance decomposition showed that fiscal expenditure in agriculture had the lag effect on the farmer＇s income, and after that the contribution increase gradually. At last, the author put forward corresponding countermeasures. Key words：financial support for agriculture; farmer＇s income; VAR model