青海省冬季气温变化成因及其预测方法探讨

Causes analysis on variations of winter air temperature in the Qinghai Province and discussion on their prediction method

利用青海省1961-2012年冬季气温观测资料、美国环境预报中心(NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)月平均高度场再分析资料、国家气候中心和美国国家海洋局和大气管理局提供的126项环流指数,探讨青海冬季气温变化特征及成因.结果表明:1961-2012年青海冬季气温呈显著上升趋势并具明显的年代际变化特征,于1986年出现由冷向暖的明显转折;西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风是影响青海冬季气温的主要系统.当冬季北半球500 h Pa高度场出现欧亚(EU)遥相关型时,青海冬季易于偏冷,同时发现大西洋欧洲区极涡强度和赤道太平洋海域海温与东亚冬季风的强弱有密切关系.采用主成分回归集成方法初步建立青海冬季气温预测模型,经历史回报检验其距平符号一致率为87%,具备一定预报技巧和能力.

Using the 39 stations temperature observation data in Qinghai Province,monthly mean reanalysis data of NCEP,126 pieces of circulation characteristics documents provided by National Climate Center of China M eteorological Administration and U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration from 1961 to 2012,were employed to study on temperature anomaly characteristic in winter and its impact mechanism. The results showthat the trend of temperature in winter from 1961 to 2012 increase significantly,and has a significant decadal variations,transition from cold to warm in 1986. Siberian High,the East Asian winter monsoon are the most important affecting factors in winter,the European Atlantic polar vortex and equatorial Pacific Ocean SST were related to East Asian winter monsoon. When Eurasian pattern appeared the Northern Hemisphere on 500 h Pa height,it was easy to colder in Qinghai winter. Predictive model of winter temperatures in the Qinghai was established with high correlation regression and integrated,its anomaly 83% symbols by historical testing,has some forecasting capability.