河西走廊疏勒河流域出山径流变化规律及趋势预测

Variation and trend prediction of the mountain runoffs of the trunk streams of the Shule River basin,Hexi Corridor

依据甘肃省河西走廊疏勒河流域1956-2013年水文站实测及水文调查资料,对流域出山径流的年内、年际变化进行统计分析,并用坎德尔秩次相关法等检验流域径流变化趋势.结果表明：1956-2013年多年平均出山径流量为11.6679×108m^3;汛期集中在6-9月,各河流来水量占年来水量的35.9%-78.7%;地下水补给平均占径流量的40.46%;出山径流年际变化相对稳定,趋势表现为持续性上升的特点.未来2014-2018年疏勒河干流出山径流为偏丰,年平均径流量预计为13.01×108m^3.

Based on the measured and surveyed hydrologic data of the Shule River basin, Hexi Corridor from 1956 to 2013, monthly and annual variations of mountain runoffs of the trunk streams of the Shule River were statistically analyzed, and Kandel rank correlation method was used to inspect runoff variation in the basin. The results show that the mountain runoff averaged over 1956 -2013 is 11. 6679 × 108 m^3 ; floods concentrate from June to September, when the runoff accounts for 35.9% - 78.7 % of the annual runoff; groundwater recharge accounts for 40.46% of the runoff on the average; annual variation of the mountain runoff is continuously increasing with a relatively small rate. It is predicted that in the next 5 years （2014 -2018） the annual average mountain runoff of the trunk streams of the Shule River would increase to 13.01×108m^3.