《劳动合同法》对就业的影响分析——基于加班时间的视角

Analysis on the Effect of Labor Contract Law on Employment——Based on the Overtime

基于就业与加班时间之间可能的替代关系,利用《中国民营企业竞争力》微观调查数据,考察了《劳动合同法》对企业雇佣的影响。基于各地历史劳动争议案件结案率分组进行的双差分分析表明,《劳动合同法》具有正向加班时间效应和负向就业效应,这一结论在根据结案率及劳动合同签订率变化情况对分组进行调整的稳健性检验中依然成立。《劳动合同法》的就业效应之所以相对较弱,可能是因为我国的企业未像发达国家的企业那样采取了资本深化、提高生产率的措施。

Based on the hypothesis that there was substitution relationship between employments and overtime, the effect of the Labor Contract Law on the finn＇s employment was explored using sample data of the Competitive Strength of Private Enterprise in China. The firms were divided into two groups according to the settle rate of labor dispute case before the labor Contract Law came into force and then positive effect on overtime and negative effect on employment of the law were found. The method of Difference-in-difference was adopted in the analysis. In the robust test, the division was adjusted by the change of the settle rate or the sign rate of labor contract before and after the enforcement of the law among provinces, but the conclusion remained. The negative effect on employment of the law was weak, which might be because there was no evidence that capital deepening taken by western firms to promote productivity were also taken by China＇s private enterprise.