保险业发展水平门槛与中国经济增长的动态均衡

Dynamic Equilibrium between the Threshold level of Insurance Industry and Economy Growth in China

基于Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans动态一般均衡分析框架构建保险业发展影响经济增长的理论模型,利用面板平滑转换模型和中国30个省域1998~2012年的面板数据,就中国整体保险业、财险业和人身保险业对经济增长的影响效应进行实证分析与稳健性检验。结果显示：保险业发展水平异质性使得保险业发展与经济增长之间存在不同的动态均衡,只有当保险业发展水平跨越某一临界值时,其经济驱动功效才能有效显现,过低的保险业发展水平将导致经济陷入低水平均衡陷阱。

Based on the framework of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper builds up a theoretical model to establish the causal link between insurance industry development and economic growth. The theoretical model shows that, the level of the insurance industry heterogeneity leads to different dynamic equilibrium between the insurance industry development and economic gTowth, only when the level of the insurance industry across a critical value, the effect of the economic drivers on the insurance industry development can be effectively revealed, low level of the insurance industry will lead the economy into a low-level equilibrium trap. Based on this, by using the panel smooth transition regression model and the panel data from 30 Provinces during 1998-2012, empirical test on the effects of China＇s overall insurance, property insurance and personal insurance industry on economic growth, the empirical analysis results and robustness test support the conclusions of the theoretical model effectively.