基于专家可信度定性判断改进的LEC方法研究

Study on the Improvement on the Qualitative Judgment of LEC Method Based on the Expert Credibility

根据山区公路施工特点,结合依托工程开展危险源辨识及风险评价研究,采用LEC方法开展危险源危险等级评价。建立专家组对危险源进行定性评估与定量评价,并引入专家可信度减小专家个体主观因素对评价结果的影响。结果表明:采用LEC方法能直观、快速地评估山区公路施工危险源初始风险水平,为制定和采取相应的安全管理措施奠定基础;基于专家组的定性评估和定量评价是开展危险源风险评价的有效方法,引入专家可信度处理可使评价结果更真实地反映危险源的实际风险水平;依托工程的16项危险源中,4项属于2级高度危险等级,11项属于3级显著危险等级,1项属于一般危险等级;在后续研究中,应更合理地改进专家分级方法,探索更科学的专家可信度赋值方法。

Based on the characteristics of the mountainous highway construction and related project, a research focused on the identification of risk sources and risk evaluation is presented. The LEC method is utilized in the risk evaluation. An expert group is established to evaluate the scores of the qualitative judgement item, and the effect of personal subjective factors on the scores is weakened by introducing the expert credibility. Some results show that： the initial risk level of the mountain highway construction can be evaluated prominently and quickly by using the LEC method, and it lays the foundation for the formulating and taking corresponding safety control measures. Based on the expert group, the qualitative assessment and quantitative evaluation is a effective methods to carry out risk assessment. The evaluation results will present more actual reflect of the real risk level of the risk sources. For the 16 hazardous sources of the relying subject, 4 items belong to the 2nd level of higher danger, 11 items belong to the 3rd level of significant risk, 1 item belongs to the general danger. The expert grading method and expert credibility evaluation should be reasonable improved in the follow-up study.