安徽省产业结构、城乡居民消费结构与经济增长的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Industrial Structure,Urban and Rural Residents' Consumption Structure and Economic Growth in Anhui Province Based on VAR model

安徽省作为中国中部的重要省份之一,正处于产业结构优化和经济增长方式转变的关键阶段。研究安徽产业结构、城乡居民消费结构和经济增长之间的关系对安徽转变经济增长方式具有指导作用。基于VAR模型,选取1985-2013年相关数据进行实证分析。结果表明:安徽省经济增长与城镇居民消费结构、经济增长与产业结构之间都存在双向因果机制,二者互为因果;农村居民消费结构对经济增长的影响不够显著;城镇居民消费结构与产业结构之间则是单向作用机制。

Anhui Province is in the critical stage of optimizing the industrial structure and changing the mode of economic growth as an important province in central China . In order to study the relationship among Anhui industrial structure , urban and rural residents＇consumption structure and economic growth , this paper makes an empirical analysis with the data of 1985 -2013 and based on the VAR model . The results show that：there exists a two-way causal mechanism between Anhui economic growth and urban residents＇consumption structure , and also between economic growth and industrial;the impact of rural residents＇consumption structure of economic growth is not obvious;the relationship between the urban residents＇consumption structure and industrial structure is a one-way mechanism .