荆州市洪灾社会脆弱性评价及其空间分异研究

Assessment of Social Vulnerability to Flood and Its Spatial Variation in Jingzhou City

洪灾社会脆弱性评价对于灾区减灾、政府决策与预警具有重要的指导意义。首先,利用荆州市社会经济数据,从人口、经济、就业、教育、土地利用与住房条件、交通与通讯、灾害综合管理7个方面32个指标构建洪灾社会脆弱性评价指标体系,通过因子分析确定了5个主因子:综合经济因子、农业与人口因子、逃生因子、社会保障因子、住房因子;然后计算各因子得分以及各地区洪灾社会脆弱性总得分;最后,对地区洪灾社会脆弱性进行系统聚类和GIS制图分析。空间分异结果表明:监利县的洪灾社会脆弱性最高;江陵县、公安县、洪湖市、松滋市和石首市为中高社会脆弱性地区;荆州区为中低区;沙市区为最低区。研究成果揭示了荆州地区洪灾社会脆弱性的空间分布,有利于进一步的防灾减灾。

Assessment on the social vulnerability to flood is of guiding importance to the disaster reduction, deci- sion-making and early warning in flood-stricken areas. According to the socio-economic data of Jingzhou city, we established an assessment index system involving 32 indicators in terms of population, economy, employment, edu- cation, land use and housing conditions, transportation and communication, and disaster management. Through factor analysis, we determined five main factors, namely, comprehensive economy, agriculture and population, res- cue condition, social security system and housing conditions. Then we calculated the score of each factor and the regional total scores of social vulnerability. Finally, these factor scores are processed by hierarchical cluster proce- dures and geographic information system （GIS）. The social vulnerability to flood is classified into serious, medium- serious, moderate, and gentle class. Among districts in Jingzhou city, Jianli belongs to serious class, Jiangling Gong＇an, Honghu, Songzi and Shishou belong to medium-serious class, Jingzhou district belongs to moderate and Shashi district belongs to gentle class.