城乡居民消费行为及结构演化的差异研究

The Evolution of Differences about Consumption Behavior and Consumption Structure between Urban and Rural Residents

转变经济发展方式、实现经济内生增长是中国经济进入"新常态"阶段最迫切需要解决的问题,而实现这一目标,最为重要的则是居民消费水平的有效提升,尤其是农村居民消费困境的破解。基于此,本文采用非线性最小二乘法(NLS)对中国城乡居民消费行为及其演化规律进行了跨时期分析,结果发现城乡居民收入与消费之间表现为明显的非线性关系,并没有完全遵循边际消费倾向递减规律。"七五"时期和"八五"时期,城乡居民边际消费随收入的增加而递增;"九五"时期及以后,城镇居民边际消费随着收入的增加而递减,农村居民边际消费则仍随收入的增加而递增。从收入结构视角看,农民边际消费仅随工资生收入和家庭经营性收入的增加而递增,而城镇居民边际消费随工资性收入、家庭经营性收入和转移性收入的增加而递减。由于农民收入增长质量较低,而且收入结构不合理,从而直接导致农民消费水平低下且结构不合理,因此,提升农民消费水平,迫切需要优化农民收入结构和消费结构。

Changing the pattern of economic development and realizing the endogenous e- conomic growth are the problems which need to solve urgently in the stage of China＇s econo- my into ＇The New Normal State~ . To achieve this goal, promoting the residents＇ consump- tion level effectively, especially the plight of the rural residents＇ consumption, is the most important. In this paper, adopting the nonlinear least squares method （NLS） for Chinese residents＇ consumer behavior and evolution pattern from the perspective of inter-temporal a- nalysis, we find that there is significant non-linear relationship between urban and rural residents＇ incomes and consumption, which don＇t fully follow the pattern of diminishing mar- ginal propensity to consume. During the period of ~the seventh five -year plan ~ and ＇the eighth five-year plan~, urban and rural residents＇ marginal consumption increases with in- come increasing~ after ＇ the ninth five-year plan＇, marginal consumption of urban residents decreases with income increasing, while marginal consumption of rural residents show the in- creasing trend＇ based on the income structure, rural residents＇ marginal consumption will in- crease with the wage income and household income increasing, but urban residents＇ marginal consumption could decrease along with the wage income, household income and transfer in- come increase.