改进的非等间距GM(1,1)大坝位移监控模型

Displacement Prediction of Dam Based on Improved Non-equidistance GM(1,1)Monitoring Model

针对传统GM(1,1)监控模型在拟合和预测大坝位移方面的不足,通过采用积分方式重构背景值、引进最佳赋权矩阵体现原始数据的时间影响效应、优化残差等途径,提出了改进的非等间距GM(1,1)大坝位移监控模型。结合工程实例,对比分析表明改进的GM(1,1)监控模型相比于传统GM(1,1)监控模型在对大坝位移原始监测资料分析的基础上,预测精度有较大提高,可作为一种新的预测手段应用于大坝位移预测中。

Aiming at the drawbacks of the traditional GM（1,1）monitoring model for prediction and fitting dam displacement,an improved non-equidistance GM（1,1）monitoring model is put forward by using integral method to reconstruct the background value,bringing in the best weighted matrix to reflect the time effect of the original data,and optimizing residual error.Combining with practical engineering and comparative analysis of the results,it shows that the prediction precision of the improved GM（1,1）monitoring model is better than that of the traditional GM（1,1）on the basis of analyzing the original monitoring data of the dam displacement.So,it can be used as a new kind of prediction method in dam displacement prediction.