摘要
电力设备时变停运概率作为基于风险度的电网运行轨迹指标的基础数据之一,其合理性直接影响电网运行轨迹指标的合理性。基于主观贝叶斯推理过程建立了输电线路的停运概率模型,在该模型中采用故障树分析方法对输电线路停运原因进行分类,并利用模糊专家系统求取可信度参数,以克服人为取值的不足。仿真结果表明,所建模型能够较好地反映输电线路状态及其外部环境的变化对输电线路停运概率的影响。
The time-varying outage probability of the electrical equipment is one of the basis data of the grid running track indicators based on the degree of risk.Its rationality directly affects the reasonableness of the grid trajectory index.The outage probability model of the transmission line is established based on the subjective Bayesian inference process.In this model,the fault tree analysis method is used to classify equipment failure,and the reliability parameters of subjective Bayesian are calculated by using the fuzzy expert system to overcome the lack of human experience.Simulation results show that the model can better reflect the impact of changes in the external environment and the device status on the probability of equipment failure.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2015年第8期156-161,共6页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家电网公司科技项目
关键词
输电线路
时变停运概率
不确定性推理
主观贝叶斯方法
transmission line
time-varying outage probability
uncertainty reasoning
subjective Bayesian
