中国城市扩张的合理性分析及驱动力分类

Rationality evaluation and classification of driving force of China's urban expansion

从地方政府土地供给行为的视角对城市扩张进行了考察,并采用1994-2012年省际面板数据和门限回归模型,对我国各省份城市扩张的合理性进行了分析。此外,还对城市扩张的驱动力进行了分类实证研究。结果表明:根据对城市经济产出作用方式的差异,城市扩张可以划分为合理和不合理两种类型;合理的城市扩张主要源于经济、人口因素的驱动,不合理的城市扩张主要源于财税、政绩考核体系等制度因素的驱动。调控城市扩张应以保证土地—资本配置关系处于合理区间为原则,以财税及官员晋升考核制度改革为手段。

Based on the difference of influence means to urban economic output by land- capital allocation relationship,this essay investigates the urban expansion. It adopts the provincial panel data during 1994- 2012,and uses the threshold regression model to analyze the rationality of expansion in each province of China. In the meanwhile,it studies on the classification and research on the driving forces of rational and irrational urban expansion. The results reveal that: Firstly,according to the difference of effects on economic output of cities,urban expansion can be divided into two types,which are rational expansion and irrational expansion; Secondly,there are different levels of irrational urban expansion in each province in most of the years since 1994 to 2012; Thirdly,the rational urban expansion is mainly driven by economic and demographic factors,while the irrational urban expansion is mainly driven by the institutional factors. Regulation and control of urban expansion should ensure land- capital allocation relation in a reasonable range,by means of reform in financial and official promotion appraisal system to reduce irrational urban expansion.