中国工业主导型城市碳排放驱动机制分析——以济源市为例

Driving forces mechanism of carbon emissions in industrial leading cities:taking Jiyuan City for example

应用修正扩展后的STIRPAT模型分解了工业主导型城市碳排放驱动机制的社会经济驱动效应,并基于协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等方法分析了碳排放与各驱动因素之间的关系。结果表明:人均GDP、产业结构、城镇化率、人口规模和碳排放强度是造成城市能耗和碳排放增加的最主要因素。就案例城市目前的发展阶段而言,经济增长尚未表现出与碳排放的倒U型变化趋势,第二产业占比是造成碳排放逐年增加的主要因素,城镇化率与碳排放之间存在显著的正相关关系。

This essay takes the industrial leading city as the research object,and analyses the social and economic driving effects of energy demand and carbon emissions with the application of modified STIRPAT model,and then examines the relations between carbon emissions and the driving factors under the co- integration analysis and Grainger causality test. The result is that the very important driving factors of increased energy demand and carbon emissions are the per- capita GDP,industrial structure,urban rate,population size and carbon emissions intensity. In the current stage of the development of the case city,the economic growth has not yet demonstrated the trend of the inverted 'U'type of carbon emissions,and the occupation of secondary industry is the main cause of increasing carbon emissions year by year,moreover,there is the significant positive correlation between urban rate and carbon emissions.