气候变暖对柴达木盆地农作物种植结构的影响

Effects of Climate Warming on Agricultural Crops Planting Structure in Qaidam Basin

利用柴达木盆地1961 ～ 2010年气温、降水资料,采用统计分析的方法分析了近50年来温度和降水量变化特征,在此基础上探讨了气候变暖对农作物种植结构的影响.结果表明,近50年来柴达木盆地年平均气温呈增加趋势,倾向率达0.55℃/10a;秋、冬季增温较显著,增温贡献率较大;近50年来≥0℃、≥5℃、≥10℃的积温均呈增加的趋势,≥0℃、≥5℃、≥10℃的初日呈提前趋势,终日逐年代呈推迟趋势;近50年来降水量略有增加趋势,增幅不明显,夏季降水的增加贡献率较大.柴达木盆地气候变暖,农作物生长季积温增多,使农作物生长季延长,利于农作物种植结构不断优化;另一方面将造成农业气象灾害、气候异常现象增加,作物病虫害增多,农业水分供需矛盾加剧,对优化农作物种植结构造成不利影响.

Using temperature and precipitation data of Qaidam Basin during 1961 - 2010, statistical analysis method was adopted to study the variation features of temperature and rainfall in recent 50 years. On the basis of this, effects of climate warming on agricultural crops planting structure were discussed. The results showed that in recent 50 years, annual average temperature increased, tendency rate reached 0. 55℃/10a; temperature increasing in autumn and winter was significant; ≥0 ℃, ≥5 ℃, ≥10℃accumulated temperature increased, the first day advanced, the ending day delayed ; precipitation slightly increased, the increase of summer precipitation has a great contribution. Climate wanning in Qaidam Basin prolong agricultural crops growing season, which is conductive for crops planting structure optimization; On the other hand, the agricultural meteorological disasters, climate anomalies, crop diseases and insect pests increase, agricultural water supply and de- mand contradiction, which will be harmful to the optimization of crop planting structure.