中国甘薯种植面积曲线拐点与影响因素分析

Analysis of the Curve of Sweet Potato Planting Area in China and Its Influencing Factors

根据联合国粮农组织数据库资料,分析了1961～2013年我国甘著种植面积变化曲线,将其分为5个阶段,找出了1978、1985、2000、2006年4个拐点,对甘薯种植面积的影响因素进行了分析.我国甘薯种植面积受政策和市场价格调控的双重影响,相对稳定在360万hm2左右,占我国耕地面积的3％上下.未来10年我国甘薯面积将持续稳定,有上升的可能.随着粮食需求的增长,甘薯面积的下降是必然趋势;但当粮食的增长远远不能满足需求时,甘薯作为健康食品将成为首选的替代作物.

According to the FAO Database, the change curve of sweet potato planting area during 1961 -2013 was analyzed and divided into 5 stages. The 4 points of 1978, 1985, 2000 and 2006 were found, and the influence factors of sweet potato planting area were analyzed. The dual influence of the policy and the market price regulation of the sweet potato planting area in China, is relatively stable at around 3.6 million bm2, accounting for 3% of the cultivated land area. In the next ten years, sweet potato area will continue to be stable, it is possible to rise. With the increase of food demand, the decline in the area of sweet potato is an inevitable trend, but when the grain growth is far from meeting the demand, sweet potato will become the preferred alternative crops.