三代移动通信网络协调建设的系统动力学分析

System Dynamics of Coordinating Construction for Mobile Communication Networks among 2G,3G and 4G

基于财务、竞争和战略三大导向,运用系统动力学模型,分析了2G、3G和4G移动通信网络的协调建设问题。代入实证数据进行系统仿真,结果显示,财务导向倾向于投资2G网络,竞争导向倾向于投资3G网络,战略导向倾向于投资4G网络。此外,政策乘子的改变,亦会影响三代网络的投资占比。运营商可以根据自己的导向偏好来选择重点投资的网络类型,并可运用政策乘子进行投资比例的调节。

A system dynamic simulation model of coordinating construction for mobile communication networks was constructed from the finance,competition and strategy orientation respectively. The system simulation results showed that the operators tended to invest 2G network under the financial orientation,3G network under the competitive orientation and4 G network under the strategic orientation. In addition,the change of policy multipliers also affected the investment proportion of the three generations networks. Therefore,the operators could choose one network as their main direction for investment according to their orientation preference,and could adjust the investment ratio of the three networks by the policy multipliers.