如何看待和分析“中国货币化之谜”

How to View and Analyze the " Chinese Monetary Puzzle"

在对"中国货币化之谜"进行研究的基础上,构建了货币需求方程,并采用向量自回归模型对我国1991—2012年"中国货币化之谜"现象进行了研究,研究的结果证实了我国确实存在着"中国货币化之谜"。研究认为,虽然我国货币供应量是物价水平的格兰杰原因,但通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解可知,货币供应量并不会导致恶性通货膨胀。研究还发现,我国货币供应量的增长拉动因素除自身惯性因素影响外,主要的外部影响因素是实体经济发展的需求,而来自物价水平的拉动并不显著,因此我国货币供应量增长具有一定合理性。

Based on the study of ＂Chinese monetary puzzle＂, this paper made the money demand equation, and the period of 1991--2012 ＂Chinese monetary puzzle＂ is analyzed by use of the VAR model,and ＂Chinese mo- netary puzzle＂ phenomenon is confirmed during 1991--2012 as the result.The study found that although the money supply was the Grainger reason of price level, but this relationship would not result in hyperinflation by the found of the impulse response function and variance decomposition.The study also found that, in addition to the impact of its inertia factors, the external factors of the growth of money supply in China mainly came from the entity economy development demand, while the price level pull was not significant, so this study also explained the rationality of China＇s money supply growth.