钢铁供应链碳排放系统动力学模型与仿真分析

The System Dynamics Model and Simulation Analysis of Carbon Emissions of Iron and Steel Supply Chain

在对钢铁供应链碳排放系统因果关系深入分析的基础上,构建了钢铁供应链碳排放系统动力学模型,模拟了吨钢生产碳排放量、单位采购碳排放量和采购周期三个参数对钢铁供应链碳排放总量的影响。研究发现:吨钢生产碳排放量和单位采购碳排放量增加,供应链总碳排放量明显增加;而采购周期对供应链总碳排放量有一定影响,但效果不明显。最后从三个方面提出了碳排放控制建议:引进相关技术和设备降低吨钢生产碳排放量、优化物流过程减少单位采购碳排放量以及合理安排采购周期优化库存量。

This paper builds the iron and steel supply chain system dynamics model of carbon emissions with an in - depth analysis of causality of the iron and steel supply chain system, and simulates the effects of three parameters over the total carbon emissions of the iron and steel supply chain, i.e. the tons of steel production of carbon emissions, the units purchasing carbon emissions, and the procurement cycle. The study shows that with the increase of tons of steel production of carbon emissions and units purchasing carbon emissions, total carbon emissions of supply chain increase correspondingly, and the effects are obvious. While procurement cycle has certain influence on total carbon emissions of supply chain, but the effects are not obvious. Finally, the paper puts forward the suggestions of carbon emission control from three aspects, that is the introduction of relevant technologies and equipment to reduce tons of steel production of carbon emissions, optimization of logistics processes to reduce units purchasing carbon emissions, and reasonable arrangements of the procurement cycle to optimize inventory levels.