中国非金融企业债务:风险、走势及对策

Non-financial Corporate Debt in China:Risks,Trends and Countermeasures

中国非金融企业债务占GDP之比在过去几年大幅提升,已成为中国经济增长和金融稳定的隐患,它不仅使经济金融体系对外生冲击更为敏感,也显著增加了爆发债务危机的概率。这种提升的背后,是资本产出比的持续上升和企业盈利能力的不断下降。未来这两个因素倘若不能得到有效改善,单凭刺激投资,进而拉动经济增长,是无法遏制企业债对GDP比快速上升势头的,反而会使情况更加恶化。因此,有必要实施一系列提升资本效率、提高企业利润率、降低企业对债务融资依赖的改革措施,推动企业部门平稳去杠杆,以避免中国经济成为非金融企业债务过高的牺牲者。

China' s non-financial corporate debt to GDP ratio has been rising dramatically since 2008,and has become a major hidden threat for the country' s economic and financial stability.The rising ratio increases the sensitivity of the financial system to external shocks and the possibility of debt crisis.Behind the rising ratio is the continually rising capital-output ratio and constantly declining corporate profitability.If those two factors cannot improve,it will be impossible to ease the situation simply by increasing investment to jazz up the economic growth.Therefore,it is necessary to implement a series of reforms to raise the efficiency of capital use,improve corporate profitability and lower corporate dependence on debt-based financing,ultimately facilitating the deleverage process of the corporate sector to avoid the Chinese economy from being victimized by corporate over-indebtedness.