“三元悖论”与我国资本项目开放的新考量

A New Consideration of“Thilemma”and China's Opening the Capital Account

在金融垄断资本主义时代的大背景下,"三元悖论"成为世界各国研究宏观经济政策组合的理论基础。近年来,中外学术界对"三元悖论"的研究有了进一步的发展。数据模型分析都表明"三元悖论"存在非角点解,即"三元悖论"存在中间状态。新发展的"三元悖论"可以应用于我国的货币政策的选择、汇率制度选择和资本流动政策选择。长期来看我国的政策组合将是:有效的货币政策,逐渐市场化的汇率制度和逐渐放开管制的资本流动政策。

In the era of finance monopoly capitalism,＂Thilemma＂ lays the theoretical foundation for the various countries＇ research on c policy combination. In recent years, Chinese and foreign academic circles have made further progress in the study of ＂Thilemma＂. The data model analysis all indicates ＂Thilemma＂ has the non-vertex solution, i.e. ＂Thilemma＂ may have intermediate state. The recent development in ＂Thilemma＂ may be applied to our country＇s monetary policy choice, the ex- change rate system choice and the capital circulation policy choice. In the long run, our country＇s policy combination will include the effective monetary policy, the gradually marketized exchange rate system and the gradually let loose capital circulation policy.