政府间转移支付的公共服务均等化效果研究——一个空间溢出效应的分析框架

The Equalization Effect of Public Service of Financial Transfer Payment——One Analytical Framework Based on the Spatial Spillover Effect

本文利用综合评价法构建了一个五级别共58个指标、涵盖七类公共服务的综合公共服务水平的指标体系,并采用空间面板模型对2005—2012年各省份地方政府公共安全、教育、文化体育与传媒、社会保障与就业、医疗卫生、环境保护、交通运输财政投入和产出水平的空间相关关系进行了分析,进而考察了转移支付对公共服务供给的空间作用机制。研究结果发现,七类支出均存在显著的空间溢出效应,中央转移支付主要通过直接作用和间接作用两种方式影响地方政府的公共服务供给。从空间相关关系来看,转移支付对地方政府各类公共服务的财政投入影响明显,但对公共安全服务和教育服务的产出影响不显著。相邻省份的财力支持会显著降低本省份社会保障的财政投入,以及本省份的环境保护和交通运输服务这类公共品的产出水平。因此,在制定转移支付政策时,应考虑对相邻省份公共服务供给的影响。

By using a comprehensive evaluation method, this paper constructs an index system of measuring public service level, which consists of five levels, fifty-eight indicators and covers seven kinds of public services. Also, by using the spatial panel model and provincial data from 2005 to 2012, the paper analyzes the spatial correlation between the financial input and the output level of seven public services which consist of public safety, edu- cation, culture, media and sport, social security and employment, medical and health, environmental protection and transportation. Then the paper studies the spatial mechanism how the transfer payment affects the supply of public service. According to the research, there are significant spatial spillover effects on the output of comprehensive public service and the seven kinds of public service expenditures. The expenditure level of public service in every province is not only affected directly by the province＇s expenditure, but also by the public service supply behavior and the in- fluence factors of neighboring provinces. The transfer payments from central government influence public service supply mainly by two ways, the direct and indirect. Under the spatial interaction between different provinces, the transfer payments from the central government will promote the financial input and output levels of all kinds of pub- lic services except for the public safety service and the education service. However, the promotion to financial input of public safety and education from the central transfer payments does not effectively convert into the promotion to output. From the point of spillover effects, if the neighboring province obtains more central transfer payments, the local government will decrease their financial input and output level of social security, and decrease their financial output level of environmental protection and transportation. Although the negative incentives will reduce the quality of medical and health supplied by local government, the investment level in medical and health will not decrease due to the expenditure rigidity. When considering other social and economic factors that affect the supply of public services, the higher popu- lation density will increase financial input of public service, but the effects on financial output of public services are almost negative. When considering the spillover effect, the effect of population density of neighboring province is not significant. Because of the positive externality of medical technology resulting from the high opening degree of other provinces, the reduction of financial investment in public service increased the output level of public services. It is useful to improve the efficiency of public service expenditure and optimize the internal structure of public serv- ice expenditure. The higher the degree of fiscal decentralization, the more power the local government has to in~ crease investment in public services. If the neighboring provinces have more fiscal self-sufficiency ability, the prov- ince may choose to exit from inter provincial competition and then result in the polarization. In order to improve the supply level of the public services and promote the development of equalization of public services, the following policy recommendations are put forward based on above conclusions of the research. Firstly, on the basis of clearing duties and financial power of government at all levels, the transfer payment system should be further improved and the size of special transfer payment should be strictly controlled. It is also important to coordi- nate the negative incentive effects of transfer payment between the receiving province and the neighboring provinces. Secondly, the government should further promote the process of marketization, which makes the factors of production having strong flow under the national market to achieve the free flow, improve the efficiency of public service expend- iture and optimize the internal structure of public service expenditure. Thirdly, the government should introduce the vertical and horizontal game and competition mechanism between the different provinces, create a healthy competition environment and supply an external environment which effectively constraints the government behavior.