海上主航迹带边界统计推断与海西航路警戒区布局优化分析

Optimizing the Precautionary Areas of Coastal Ships' Routing in Western Taiwan Strait with Statistical Inference Method for Delineating the Boundary of Maritime Principal Fairways

台湾海峡是东北亚各国与东南亚、印度洋沿岸各国间的海上捷径,其交通主流是通行海峡的南北向航次,然而海峡两岸启动大三通后,穿越海峡的客货运船舶日益增多,导致闽台直航航次与台湾海峡南北干线主交通流交叉现象凸显,台湾海峡西侧水域冲突日益加剧。本文根据船舶轨迹观测数据,抽样出通行海峡南北及横穿海峡的航次样本,应用轨迹栅格化方法建立统计推断模型,以概率形式表达南北干线、两岸直航的海运利用分布,推断出2种交通流的主航迹带,识别南北向交通主流与两岸直航交通支流的显著冲突区,以此调整现有警戒区设置方案。研究结果表明:轨迹统计推断法能定量化分析海西现有交通流模式,易于辨识横越海峡的船舶与通行海峡在航船舶的冲突区中心,为优化警戒区布局提供有效的方法支撑;调整后的海西警戒区中心可与台湾本岛西岸港口外侧的直航船舶通过点对接,形成海峡两岸直航的固定航线,可降低台湾海峡船舶冲突隐患,规范台湾海峡的船舶交通秩序。

The Taiwan Strait is a shortcut linking the Far-east with Southeast Asia. After the implementation of direct cross-strait transportation between China's Mainland and Taiwan on December 12%th, 2008, more and more commercial vessels sail across the strait, causing frequent conflicts between involved ships who undertake continuous and expeditious transit passages through the strait. To minimize the possibility of collisions between ships passing the strait, China's Mainland and Taiwan should work cooperatively to create a ship routing system to separate vessels and navigate the crossing and encountering situations occurred in the strait. Recent advances in ship tracking and telemetry technology help to collect the movement data more efficiently and accurately. The shore-based Automatic Identification System （AIS） network maintained by China Maritime Safety Administration has observed tens of thousands of seagoing commercial ships travelling annually through the Taiwan Strait. It is obvious that the ship tracks have increased tremendously in the strait. These advances would be useful for delineating Principal Fairways （PFs） in the crowded strait-corridor. In this paper, a space-use method found in the habitat evaluation of animal is applied to extract PFs in the crowded strait. Based on ship trajectory observations of the main traffic flows （transit-passage） and direct cross-strait transits, maritime traffic features of the strait are characterized in the form of probability density with the application of statistical inference methods. Bringing the layer of popular direct cross-strait lanes to the iso-surface of main traffic flow＇s skeleton, all conflict areas are extracted as the Precautionary Areas （PAs） of China＇ s Coastal Ships Routing System Plan in Western Taiwan Strait. For direct cross-strait transportations, by linking the centers of PAs in the Western Taiwan Strait with the official pass points outside the western Taiwan harbors, this paper recommends the applicable direct cross-strait routes to reduce the risk of conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.