加入世贸组织对中国经济增长影响的实证研究

An Empirical Research of the Effects of Entry into WTO upon China's Economic Growth

利用虚拟变量回归和交叉变量分析法,就入世对中国经济增长的影响及其传导路径进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:从总体来看,入世对中国经济增长产生了显著的促进作用;从具体的影响路径来看,入世可通过对外贸易路径、经济体制改革路径和外商直接投资路径对中国经济增长产生显著的促进作用,但入世并未通过技术进步路径来实现对中国经济增长的显著影响。为了更好地发挥入世对中国经济增长的正面影响,我国应继续加大对外开放力度,加大引资力度和提高引资质量,推进外贸体制改革,逐步有序地引入WTO规则来继续推进中国的市场化进程。

Using the virtual variable regression and cross-variable analysis,this paper makes an empirical research of the effects of entry into WTO upon China’s economic growth and its conduction paths.The results show that on the whole, entry into WTO has remarkably promoted China’s economic growth and in terms of specific effect paths,the foreign trade path,the economic restructuring path and the foreign direct investment path exert a significant effect on China’s economic growth whereas the technology advancement path does not.For a better use of the positive effects of entry into WTO upon China’s economic growth, it is recommended that China should broaden the level of opening-up, enhance investment intensity,improve investment quality,promote the reform of foreign trade systems and gradually introduce WTO rules to accelerate China’s marketization.