中国区域人口流动能力测度及其应用研究

On the measurement and application of regional population mobility of China in provincial scale

区域人口流动能力是区域人口总体的空间活动能力,它是表征区域发展活力的综合指标.不同形式的流动人口有着不同的"力当量",一个区域的人口流动能力是其内流力、对流力和回流力的当量和.2005年的实证分析表明:中国省级尺度上的人口流动能力在整体上属于中等偏弱,且自东向西梯度递减;在结构上以内流力为主体,回流力次之,对流力又次,内流力受人口规模制约,回流力与区域教育、旅游和劳动密集型产业发展有关,对流力与区域经济发展和城镇化水平有关;我国省级尺度上的人均人口流动能力和地均人口流动能力均偏弱,但人均人口流动能力的梯度差异不明显,地均人口流动能力的梯度差异明显;GDP和城市化率对流动能力具有协同推进作用;流动能力与市场化指数、创新能力指数、文化资本指数、发展指数等都有显著的正相关,可为文化产业中心布局和遏制不良传播提供科学依据.

Population mobility （P. M. ） of a region is the spatial mobile capacity of the whole regional population, which synthetically stands for the vitality of a regional development. Various mobile populations have their own ＂Force Equivalence＂ and the total mobility of a regional population is the sum of equivalent of its influx P. M. , convective P. M. and reflux P. M. Case study of China in 2005 shows that： 1） As a whole, China＇s provincial P.M. is below medium level and has a gradient distribution descending from eastern to western provinces. 2） Structurally, influx P. M. is in dominant position, followed sequentially by reflux P. M. and convective P. M. ; Influx P. M. is restricted by population size; Reflux P. M. is related to education, tourism and labor-intensive industries; Convective P. M. is associated with regional economy and urbanization level. 3） The values of provincial P.M. per capita and area are relatively low and the per-area mobility distributes gradiently instead of the per capita one. 4） Both GDP and urbanization ratio have synergetic effect on regional P. M. ; P.M. is significantly correlated with Market Index, Innovative Capacity Index, Cultural Capital Index and Development Index, indicating it providing scientific basis for both the allocation of cultural industry and the restriction of negative spread.