摘要
利用北京市、天津市和河北省1961—2008年逐日台站降水资料,采用经验正交函数分解(empiricalorthogonalfunction)、Morlet小波、曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)突变检验等方法,统计分析了京津冀地区暴雨量及暴雨频次的气候变化特征。结果表明:气候态下,京津冀地区暴雨量及暴雨频次沿地形呈东南多-西北少的分布型,暴雨发生时间相对集中在7月下旬和8月上旬。1961—2008年京津冀大部分地区暴雨量呈减少的趋势,且在1980年发生显著突变,2000年代以后暴雨量进一步减少。小波功率谱分析结果表明,京津冀地区暴雨量主要存在2~4a的显著主周期。该地区暴雨量EOF展开的前3模态显示,暴雨量主要呈全区一致变化以及东西反向、南北反向的空间变化特征。
Based on the observational daily precipitation data provided by Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province Meteorological Bureau during 1961-2008, the characteristics of the climatic variations of stormrain in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei province region (Jing-Jin-Ji)are analyzed in this paper by using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method, Morlet wavelet and Mann-Kendall test. The major results are summarized as follows:the rainstorm precipitation and its frequency show a high consistency distribution which exhibits a significant meridional gradient along the terrain of Jing-Jin-Ji, and appears mainly during late July and early August of the year in climatology. There is a continuously decrease trend in the precipitation of rainstorm in Jing-Jin-Ji since 1960s. Evidence also shows that 1980 is an abrupt change point and an obviously decrease trend of rainstorm in Jing-Jin-Ji occurs in 2000s. Wavelet power spectrum reveals that 2- 4a is a significantly period for rainstorm in Jing-Jin-Ji. The rainstorm in Jing-Jin-Ji shows a consistent change or opposite changes in east and west or in south and north.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2015年第4期25-31,共7页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
京津冀地区
暴雨
气候变化
减少
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji )
rainstorm
climatic variations
decrease