2014年4月强寒潮天气对阿勒泰地区沙棘花期冻害的影响分析

Impact of the Strong Cold Wave Weather in Altay Region on the Hippophae Rhamnoides Flowering Cold Injury in April 2014

通过对2014年阿勒泰地区沙棘萌动期—开花期—坐果期跟踪观测和历年发育期、冻害调查,发现2014年阿勒泰地区沙棘发育期较历年明显偏早10 d左右,且花期遭遇轻度冻害。通过对有记录以来的气候资料分析确定阿勒泰地区大部分地方沙棘花期在4月20日以后,其中,青河在5月1日以后。本文将2014年4—5月气温与历年同期气温相比较,发现2014年4月气温存在前期高,后期低,且回升趋势和历年趋势相反的异常现象。进一步分析1954—2014年4月21日—5月15日之间的5县1市-5℃、-4℃、-3℃以下最低气温发生概率,结合2014年花期冻害程度,发现沙棘花期冻害率与最低气温和其降幅成正相关,其冻害率均在20%以下,确定阿勒泰地区沙棘花期冻害指标为-4℃。这为沙棘花期冻害预警、产量预报提供了科学依据。

Through the research of Hippophae rhamnoides’growing period and cold injury, and the observation of its’seeding period to flowering period to bear fruit period in 2014, it showed that Hippophae rhamnoides in Altay area in 2014 have 10 days growth period earlier than before over the years, and encountered freeze injury during flowering phase. The flowering period of Hippophae rhamnoides in most place of Altay area is on April 20th afterwards, and Qinghe is in May 1st afterwards by analyzing the climate data. This paper made a comparison of the temperature in April to May in 2014 and before over the years. It found that the temperature in April in 2014 was high in earlier, but low in later, meanwhile the rising tendency contrasted to over years＆#39; tendency. Then we moved a further analyzed in occurrence probability of the minimum temperature under-5 ℃、-4℃、-3 ℃ from April 21st to May 15th in 1954-2014 in 5 counties of 1 city. Integrated the cold injury degree of flowering, we found that Hippophae rhamnoides’flowering cold injury ratio was proportional to the minimum temperature and its decreasing degree. And the cold injury ratio was under 20%, cold injury early-warning index - 4 ℃. This research provides the scientific basis of early warming and output forecasting of Hippophae rhamnoides’flowring cold injury.